Kalshi traders see less than 30% odds that the U.S. government will take a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic this year, despite a Financial Times report that OpenAI proposed granting the U.S. government a 5% stake. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman first shared the idea of offering the government a stake with the Trump administration in 2025, a source told CNBC last month. Last week, President Donald Trump avoided answering CNBC’s question on the proposed OpenAI stake, instead discussing the 10% stake the government took in Intel last summer. Kalshi traders see odds well over 60% that the government could take a stake this year in Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and GlobalFoundries. In May, the U.S. Commerce Department said it would award $2 billion in grants to nine firms in the quantum computing space, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology said it would take a minority, non-controlling stake in each company. Traders see just over a 50% likelihood the government could take a stake in Performance Drone Works, and less than 40% odds for Neros Technologies, following a Wall Street Journal report that the Trump administration might establish deals with private-sector drone companies that could entail equity stakes.