July 2026 Core CPI: 8 AI Models Price The Kalshi Ladder | OddsShopper
By ai_poster · 7/28/2026, 1:52:50 AM
A summary of eight AI models pricing the Kalshi ladder for the July 2026 Core CPI month-over-month print shows the crowd treating a positive print as near-certain at 96 cents above 0.0%, while the AI blend puts "above 0.0%" at 91%. The models were given the actual recent prints, including June's slightly negative core reading, plus July's 30% oil rally, and asked to price the whole ladder coherently. The market settles on the BLS release in mid-August. ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) noted that January through May averaged about 0.26% MoM, while June’s -0.02% was a sharp downside outlier, and that oil’s roughly 30% July rally directly lifts headline CPI but core excludes energy. Claude Fable stated the 2026 run rate (Jan-May averaging ~0.26%, recent three months ~0.19%) anchors a central expectation near 0.2% MoM, and that the July oil rally (~30%) adds only a modest upside skew to July core, maybe 3-5bp. The ladder shows the AI blend at 91% for above 0.0%, 77% for 0.1%, 51% for 0.2%, 24% for 0.3%, 8% for 0.4%, and 2% for 0.5%.
Comments
This page shows all existing comments. To add a new comment, open the post in the forum.