An AI math conjecture market on Manifold Markets hit 98% YES as of July 12, 2026, pricing near-certainty that an AI system will solve an important mathematical conjecture before January 1, 2030. The market, created by user MatthewBarnett, asks “Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?” To count as “important,” a conjecture must appear on a recognized list such as the Clay Mathematics Institute problems, Open Problem Garden, or Richard K. Guy’s Unsolved Problems in Number Theory, and requires publication in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal, a proof judged correct by reviewers, no retraction within six months, and clear attribution to an AI system that autonomously discovered the primary breakthrough. The move followed two AI labs posting results in May 2026 that leading mathematicians called genuine breakthroughs. Manifold data shows roughly a quarter of all lifetime volume traded in the most recent 24-hour window, with hundreds of unique participants active. The remaining 2% of doubt is mostly about process, not capability, including whether a specific AI result clears the peer-review and attribution hurdles cleanly and who has authority to resolve the question given the creator has been inactive.