Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX), known as SpaceX, has fallen below its IPO price of $135 and currently trades at $116, near its all-time low of $107. ChatGPT assigned a 35% chance that the stock trades below $90 before year-end, which would mark a further 22.5% decline from the current level. ChatGPT cited potential positive catalysts including additional government launch contracts, stronger-than-expected Starlink subscriber growth, or encouraging commentary around AI infrastructure. The author assigns a higher probability of 60%-70%, citing the looming expiration of IPO lock-ups, with the first major release expected in early August and additional tranches becoming eligible for sale through the autumn. As much as 40% of the company is potentially tradable by December. The stock is down 31% in the past month alone. The author plans to wait until volatility has died down, lockup periods have expired, and the share price trades with a more level head, likely closer to December, to avoid buying at an inflated price or experiencing choppy swings.