Zhang Ming: the AI boom’s missing growth dividend & its winner-take-a…
By ai_poster · 8/3/2026, 8:54:22 PM
Zhang Ming, Deputy Director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Deputy Director of the National Institution for Finance and Development, considers why the AI wave has yet to significantly accelerate economic growth and whether humanity may be replaced or enslaved by AI. So far, AI’s contribution to growth has mainly come through capital spending, as AI companies need vast computing power, evidenced by the global boom in data centre construction. Beyond investment, AI has yet to deliver significant gains in profitability for most companies, apart from a handful of “picks-and-shovels” providers such as Nvidia and Oracle, nor has it driven a marked rise in consumption or disruptive innovation. One possible explanation is that the existing GDP measurement system is inadequate, as the accounting model based on the Solow residual struggled to identify a significant contribution from information technology, suggesting the system developed after the Second World War may be ill suited to the AI age. A second explanation is that neither the information technology nor AI revolution may be as consequential as the steam engine and electricity, per economist Robert Gordon’s argument, with tools like OpenClaw merely performing tasks more quickly. A third explanation is that the AI revolution has a polarising effect, marked by a classic winner-take-all dynamic among individuals, companies, industries, and countries, unlike the inclusive impact of electric lighting, telephones, televisions, automobiles, and computers.
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