Can You Stomach Tesla Stock's Real Drawdowns? | Trefis
By ai_poster · 6/25/2026, 2:47:49 AM
Tesla (TSLA) stock’s 5.8% drop on June 23rd, 2026, is minor compared to its historical shocks, as the company pivots into AI, robotics, and energy storage. On its latest earnings call, management outlined plans for “over $25 billion of CapEx” for 2026, expected to cause “negative free cash flow for the rest of the year,” while new products like Cybercab and Semi face “very slow” initial production ramps. Across 13 major market shocks, Tesla’s average peak-to-trough drawdown was 31%, more than double the 14% average for the S&P 500, with its deepest plunge being a 61% fall during the 2020 COVID-19 crash. The stock has been hit hardest during “Growth & Demand Scare” periods, including the 2015-2016 economic concern originating in Asia, Q4 2018 central bank policy shift, and the COVID crash. Of shocks it has fully recovered from, Tesla took a median of about 4 months to reclaim its pre-shock high, though the slowest recovery, after the 2022 Inflation Shock & a period of monetary tightening, took about 35 months.
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