On July 29, 2026, a Manifold prediction market asking whether at least 10,000 humanoid robots will be manufactured before January 1, 2028 surged to a 99% implied probability of YES, with roughly 42% of its all-time volume changing hands in a single day. The market, titled “Will 10K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?”, trades on Manifold, a play-money forecasting platform, and has drawn about 15,000 mana in cumulative volume across roughly 233 trades from 34 holders. A qualifying robot must be bipedal, walk upright, have hands with fingers, operate autonomously for at least one hour, stand between 1.25 and 3 meters tall, weigh between 25 and 500 kilograms, and lift a 5 kilogram box and carry it 10 meters. The sudden bet lands in the same window that Tesla prepares to switch on its Optimus production line and Chinese manufacturers report record 2025 shipments.