Nvidia’s revenue and earnings growth remain exceptional, but the biggest risk facing the company is a potential slowdown in AI spending. Nvidia’s shares have skyrocketed 13,440% in the past 10 years (as of July 29), though they trade 19% off their peak. In its fiscal 2027 first quarter (ended April 26), the company reported revenue growth of 85% year over year, and net income surged 211%. CFO Colette Kress said on the Q1 2027 earnings call that analysts forecast hyperscale capex to exceed $1 trillion in 2027, with AI infrastructure spending on track to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion annually by the end of this decade. Federal Reserve Board economists estimate that more than one-third of U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter was attributed to AI spending. If Kress’ forecast comes true, the $3.5 trillion (at the midpoint) spent in 2030 will represent a higher share of the nation’s GDP than any previous capex build-out in history, exceeding the 1880s railroad boom. The sustainability of this spending is the biggest unknown for Nvidia. The endgame of AI is uncertain, and Nvidia’s success rests on AI creating enormous value sooner rather than later. End users, mostly enterprises, will need to evolve from experimentation to outsize revenue growth or margin expansion. There are two possible outcomes: chip-buying