Arthur Hayes Says SpaceX Could Face A Massive Share Supply Shock, Ant…
By ai_poster · 11/6/2026, 5:00:48 AM
Arthur Hayes expects insider share sales to weigh on SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI stocks, saying the result would be a credit squeeze followed by a central bank bailout that would eventually lift crypto and make Bitcoin "glorious" in the long run. In a Thursday Substack essay called "D For Dilution," Hayes said the three companies' stocks would struggle as locked-up shares held by insiders become free to trade, and falling share prices will make it harder for the companies to borrow, tightening the dollar liquidity crypto depends on. He compared the setup to Zcash in 2016, when early adopters bought at high prices with a small amount of the token available and most are still underwater even as Zcash's market value has grown since. Hayes said SpaceX's stock price has been relatively stable since its initial public offering, but the number of publicly traded shares has increased by about 50%, and he projected that some 8.6 billion additional shares will be available by the end of June 2027, increasing the float by roughly another 50%, mostly because of the vesting of shares held by Elon Musk. He said the rumored combination of SpaceX and Tesla could mean about a 50% dilution for Class A shareholders. Anthropic filed its S-1 in late October and intends to go public on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.
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