AI and the jobs apocalypse that wasn’t - R Street Institute
By ai_poster · 7/30/2026, 6:26:03 PM
A July 30, 2026 op-ed originally published in CapX argues that predictions of AI-driven mass unemployment have not materialized. The article notes that alarmist headlines from 2015-2016, such as "Robots may shatter the global economic order within a decade" and "The Robots Will Steal All Our Jobs And No, They Won’t Create New Ones," proved inaccurate. The Wall Street Journal summarizes that "the narrative has shifted from worker-light doomsday scenarios caused by AI to a future in which workers keep their jobs – and get a productivity boost." The piece attributes this to "Jevons paradox" and "Moravec’s paradox," which were "massively underappreciated by the experts." Jevons paradox explains that efficiency improvements often increase total consumption of a resource, meaning AI automation can boost demand for new systems and labor. Moravec’s paradox notes that tasks humans find easy are often hardest to automate. The article cites a Wall Street Journal headline, "The Job That AI Was Supposed to Kill Needs More Humans Than Ever," about court stenographers, and notes truck drivers remain in hot demand. It also references Geoffrey Hinton’s 2016 prediction that AI would take over radiology within 5 years, but a decade later, the New York Times states, "The predicted extinction of radiologists provides a telling case study... A.I. is proving to be a powerful medical tool... rather than take anyone
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