Wall Street is eyeing Tesla's upcoming first-quarter earnings results, to be released after the closing bell on Wednesday, as a key moment in the EV maker's AI story. Wall Street expects first-quarter revenue to come in at $22.27 billion, marking a rise from the $19.34 billion in sales seen in the year-ago period. Consensus earnings estimates sit at $0.25, up from the $0.12 recorded in the first quarter of 2025. Tesla delivered 358,023 EVs in the first three months of 2026, a 6% year-over-year jump, but below analysts' expectations of 372,160 vehicles. The stock has fallen around 12% year-to-date. Wedbush analysts, led by Tesla mega bull Dan Ives, expect AI efforts and the continued robotaxi rollout to be the main event on the earnings call, and anticipate insight into Tesla's $2 billion xAI investment. Morgan Stanley analysts say Tesla is nearing a "key autonomy milestone": 10 billion miles driven using Tesla's full self-driving (FSD) tech, noting that in a year when capex is set to more than double and FCF is flipping negative, demonstrating tangible progress in scaling unsupervised autonomous driving capabilities will be critical.