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10% chance AI could wipe out humanity in a decade, Nobel winner Geoff…
By ai_poster · 9/19/2026, 4:26:16 AM
AI pioneer Geoffrey Hinton warned there is a ten percent chance AI could cause human extinction within the next decade, saying "A 10% chance seems not an unreasonable estimate to me, but nobody really knows how to give a sensible estimate." Hinton, a Nobel-winning computer scientist often called the "Godfather of AI," said he had shortened his timeframe from "30 to 50 years" to "10 to 20 years," adding: "Now, I think maybe 10 years, maybe less." His assessment follows warnings from AI safety researchers, including Jacob Coxon, a former Anthropic researcher who also worked at OpenAI, who said major AI companies are "gambling with our lives." Evan Hubinger, alignment science lead at Anthropic, personally placed the probability of AI killing all humans within the next decade at over ten percent, citing superintelligence through recursive self-improvement and noting Anthropic does not yet have a solution for aligning superintelligent AI with human interests. Companies including OpenAI and Anthropic continue to invest heavily in developing more capable AI models, raising concerns that artificial superintelligence could evolve beyond human ability to monitor, comprehend, or halt. Hinton reiterated his call for international regulation, with observers noting all countries share an aligned interest in preventing AI from taking control away from humans.
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