TSMC Faces Revenue 'Uncertainty' In 2028-29 As AI Investments Need To…
By ai_poster · 8/11/2026, 7:29:23 PM
Morningstar analyst Phenix Lee said Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) could see revenue growth remain strong through 2027, but greater uncertainty emerges in 2028 and 2029 as AI investments face pressure to demonstrate returns. In an interview with CNBC, Lee said, “For 2027, we do expect a 30% revenue increase, mainly driven by AI and other de-bottlenecking efforts. We are assuming an increase in demand and an increase in supply that can serve the growing market. More of the uncertainty is really on the 2028 or 2029 time frame when AI investments definitely need to prove their returns.” Lee noted the semiconductor supply chain is evolving as AI demand grows, with advanced chips potentially giving way to other components as the industry's biggest constraint. That shift could partly explain why TSMC's stock has been relatively stable despite high expectations for its AI-driven growth. TSMC's ability to expand supply alongside demand will be important as bottlenecks move across the broader AI infrastructure supply chain. Lee also highlighted geopolitical concerns and TSMC's increasing overseas manufacturing footprint as influencing decisions. Separately, Sony Semiconductor Solutions and TSMC announced a definitive agreement to establish a joint venture in Kumamoto, Japan, focused on advanced image sensors for smartphones. Sony will be the controlling shareholder, contributing approximately 465 billion yen ($2.92 billion) through cash and asset transfers; TSMC will contribute about 282 billion yen ($1.77 billion) in cash.
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