SemiAnalysis bets that Meta could surpass Google within the next 6 months, becoming the strongest contender after OpenAI and Anthropic, based on three fronts: the $14.3 billion Scale AI deal, RL data production, and multi-GW compute power expansion. Muse Spark 1.1 still hasn't matched frontier models, and whether Meta can catch up to Google depends on the performance of its next-generation model. Meta released Muse Spark in April, and according to Axios on July 9, Muse Spark 1.1 has opened its API to developers, priced at $1.25 per million input tokens and $4.25 per million output tokens. Axios notes that this is not the "quantum leap" model Meta had hoped for, and a larger model codenamed Watermelon is still in training. After the setback with Llama 4, Zuckerberg is restructuring the AI organization more aggressively, pouring money, talent, internal engineering resources, and data center capacity into the super-intelligence lab. The core disagreement in the report is whether Google can still hold its position as the third pole of AI. SemiAnalysis's tests and judgments indicate Muse Spark and its subsequent versions still struggle to be called frontier models in most benchmarks and general agent scenarios. Meta's most prominent move is its $14.3 billion investment in Scale AI, bringing in Scale AI founder Alexandr Wang to join or lead.