The U.S. Dollar Index closed at the 100.95 level. Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed an evenly split stance: half of officials favored holding rates steady, while the other half viewed further rate hikes as appropriate. The minutes adopted a scenario-based decision-making framework; most participants agreed they would respond with rate hikes under an adverse scenario of persistently high inflation, or maintain or cut rates under a favorable scenario of declining inflation. The June minutes omitted the phrase that “a substantial majority” believed it would take longer for inflation to return to target, and the share of participants viewing longer-term inflation expectations as well anchored rose from “most” to “a majority.” The minutes emphasized that next week’s CPI and PPI data will play a critical role. In its semiannual monetary policy report submitted to Congress on July 10, the Federal Reserve acknowledged inflation “intensified further this spring,” citing lingering tariff effects, elevated energy costs, and the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence. As of May, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index was running at roughly twice the 2% target. The report, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh, explicitly identifies AI as a short-term driver of inflation. The labor market was assessed as “stabilizing,” with the unemployment rate at 4.2% in June.