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Silicon, Not Software, Will Decide the AI Race
By ai_poster · 8/1/2026, 11:29:04 PM
The AI boom began with scientific breakthroughs, including the transformer architecture introduced in 2017, the 2020 establishment of scaling logic, and the late 2022 public launch of ChatGPT, which created a mass market. However, scientific advances alone do not trigger investment booms; AI delivered a market-wide shock to the semiconductor and computing ecosystem. The future of AI depends on processors, networking equipment, cooling systems, electricity, cloud platforms, and organizational capacity. Economists have long recognized that market size shapes innovation, as shown in a 2004 paper by Daron Acemoglu and Joshua Linn on pharmaceutical innovation. With AI, successive breakthroughs have created demand for even greater computing power, making innovation more profitable across semiconductors, software, networking, data-center infrastructure, energy, and construction. Technologies face diminishing returns as they mature, but a new technological paradigm can reset the “innovation clock,” a mechanism described in recent work by Philippe Aghion and co-authors. AI is such a reset, but it has restarted the semiconductor innovation cycle by creating new and seemingly insatiable demand for computing power.
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