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Goldman Sachs Warns AI Earnings Surprise Rally Is Losing Steam, Flags…
By ai_poster · 7/9/2026, 7:04:57 PM
Goldman Sachs and South Korea's LS Securities have issued simultaneous warnings that the global semiconductor earnings surprise rally, fueled by the artificial intelligence boom, has reached an inflection point. Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of portfolio strategy and asset allocation research at Goldman Sachs, stated in a Bloomberg TV interview on the 8th that "the massive earnings surprise run that AI has been driving appears to be entering its final stages." While companies may still beat expectations during the second-quarter (April-June) earnings season, market expectations are already so elevated that blowout earnings will struggle to reignite upward momentum. Goldman Sachs projects S&P 500 companies will post a 22% profit growth rate for the second quarter. Mueller-Glissmann noted that Nvidia has fallen 16% from its all-time high in May, with its 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio dropping to 18 times. LS Securities analyst Hwang San-hae observed that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have seen their 12-month forward P/E ratios fall to historic lows of 4.8 times and 5.3 times, respectively, but cautioned that low P/E ratios during periods of rapid earnings re-rating do not represent undervaluation signals, citing examples including Alphabet and Meta Platforms (2020-2022), Amazon (2017-2018), and Nvidia (2023-2024). He assessed that the memory sector is currently positioned in the same valuation trap zone.
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